Posted by: Peter | September 26, 2008

Series of the Year

Obviously, sweeping the White Sox was huge for the Twins’ season. But how huge? I decided to run a little simulation, to see what the team’s chances of going to the playoffs was before and after this series. For most of the relevant games (the Twins-Royals series, the Sox-Indians series, the possible Sox-Tigers makeup game) I assumed each game is a toss-up, with each team having a 50-50 chance of winning. That’s obviously not quite right, what with pitcher matchups, home-field advantage, the difference in opponent quality, and so on, but it’s a good rough guide. To account for the fact that the Twins-Sox series was at the dome and the one-game playoff would be at US Cellular, I gave the twins a 60% chance of winning the home games, but only a 40% chance of winning a playoff on the road.

Granted, this isn’t as complex or as accurate as something like Baseball Prospectus’s Postseason Odds Report, but the overall playoff odds that come from my quick-and-dirty method are pretty similar. And doing my own simulation allows me to look a little deeper into the likely scenarios, beyond what the BP page shows.

So after simulating the end of the season 100,000 times, here’s what I got:

Before the sweep:

  • Probaility of the Twins making the playoffs: 19%
  • Probablity that the Sox have to play their makeup game: 27%
  • Probability that the season is decided by a one-game playoff: 13%
  • Most probable outcome: Sox win the division by 1.5 games (18%)

And after the sweep?

  • Probaility of the Twins making the playoffs: 61%
  • Probablity that the Sox have to play their makeup game: 55%
  • Probability that the season is decided by a one-game playoff: 27%
  • Most probable outcome: Twins win the division by one game (28%)

To say that this series saved the Twins season is putting it lightly.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Categories

%d bloggers like this: